Bob's Journal
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Dollar Surge Surprises Analysts
The dollar’s been soaring lately and surprising many analysts. After the latest upward surge, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) still is down 4.50% over the last 12 months and 0.85% annualized for the last three years. But it’s up 4.86% for the last three months, 3.39% for the last four weeks and […]
Investors Sell off Stocks of Companies with Good Results
Investors are learning that stock prices don’t always follow earnings. Over the long-term, corporate earnings overall tend to grow at about the same rate as gross domestic product (GDP), and stock prices tend to rise at the same rate as earnings. But that’s over the long term, since there can be a lot of divergence […]
Do Weak Retail Sales Indicate a Problem with the Economy?
Do weak retail sales indicate a problem with the economy? They’re certainly a problem for retailers. Weak overall sales, plus competition from online retailers, are among trends causing a large number of retailers to file for bankruptcy. But does the recent weakness in retail sales foreshadow a problem with economic growth? The latest retail sales […]
Spotting Changes in the Global Economy
One of the first places to spot changes in the global economy is in the economic surprises index. The best-known economic surprises index is prepared by Citigroup. The index doesn’t track whether economic data is positive or negative, improving or declining. Instead, it tracks whether the data is better or worse than the expectations of […]
Markets Continue Negative Trend
The investment markets in March continued the negative trends of February. The biggest trend, of course, is negative returns for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 slid 2.74% in March, fell 7.81% from its Jan. 26 peak to wipe out January’s strong gains and now has a year-to-date loss of 1.00%. The Dow Jones […]
The Post-Crisis Inflation Mystery
Inflation probably is the most important, and puzzling, economic factor today. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining full employment while restraining inflation. With unemployment very low, the Fed’s primary focus is on inflation these days. The path of inflation, and the Fed’s expectations of that path, will determine how much the Fed […]
Trade Talk, Actions Roil The Markets
President Trump directed a lot of his attention so far in 2018 at trade policies, and the markets noticed. Trade policies were always a key part of the president’s campaign talking points and agenda, but they were in the background through the first year of the administration. A few modest moves on trade were taken, […]
Listening To The Markets
The markets are sending us interesting messages. A lot has happened in the markets so far in 2018. U.S. stocks had strong returns and record highs throughout January. That was followed by a brief correction and a rebound. Global markets generally have been correlated with the U.S. indexes, but there has been a lot of […]
