Bob's Journal
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The Yield Curve Warning Sign
There is a lot of misunderstanding about a key indicator of the economy and markets. The yield curve is attracting more and more attention. Most of the analysts drawing attention to the yield curve say it is giving or about to give a big warning to investors. I think they’re misreading the yield curve and […]
Evaluating the Aging Bull
After eight years of strong returns, is it time to consider selling U.S. stocks? Periods of strong returns make many investors nervous. Through 2017, we documented the extended periods of gains in the major market indexes without interruptions by significant declines. These periods without declines are at or near record lengths. The S&P 500, for […]
The 2017 Stock Market Review
Let’s review the highlights about why 2017 was an extraordinary year in the markets. Strength and consistency were the key qualities of U.S. stocks in 2017. There was very little volatility, especially downside volatility. There wasn’t a meaningful period of decline in 2017, and there really has not been one since early 2016. The price […]
Is Inflation about to Stir?
Inflation has been one of the major puzzles since the financial crisis. Many people expected that after the Fed began its zero-interest-rate and quantitative-easing policies in 2009, inflation would rise to troublesome levels. That didn’t happen, and inflation has been stubbornly below average for years. Inflation has increased the last few years, but it has […]
Deciphering the Latest Market Changes
Have you noticed the changes in the markets over the last few weeks? I don’t mean the sudden lack of new record highs in the major U.S. stock indexes. I’m asking about the changes in market leaders. All year, technology stocks have been leading the indexes higher, and the NASDAQ 100 has been the top […]
The Year of Positive Economic Surprises
We’re about to be inundated with economic and market forecasts for 2018. Before you spend much time with those forecasts, consider how accurately the forecasts for 2017 were. Market forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, but most of the forecasts for 2017 were farther off the mark than usual. I like to follow the Citi Economic Surprise […]
Happy Thanksgiving 2017
Happy Thanksgiving 2017 I prepared this week’s Bob’s Journal early and in a different format because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Next week, I’ll be back to our regular journal entry. Once again, this has been a year of surprises, but none of them derailed the economy or the stock markets. One year ago, many analysts […]
The Markets Since the Election
Last week marked the first year since the presidential election, so let’s look at what markets have done since Election Day. Of course, you know that U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher than a year ago. The major indexes each returned more than 20%, but the increase isn’t across the board for all indices. The […]
