Bob's Journal
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Bob’s Journal for 2/21/19
The economy clearly is slowing. Is there a recession on the way? Most of the economic data the last few months has been weaker than previous data and weaker than expected. That has caused many economists to begin warning that a recession might occur in 2020 and perhaps later in 2019. Corporations have been issuing […]
Bob’s Journal for 2/14/19
Investors should shift their focus from the United States to other economies, especially Europe. Most investors have been complacent about Europe since the Greek debt crisis seemed to be resolved a few years ago. But there’s a lot more going on in Europe, and little of it is good. The European economy has been weak […]
Update for February 7, 2019
Higher volatility and rapid changes in market momentum characterized the markets the last few months, and you should expect those trends to continue. Stock indexes steadily declined in the fourth quarter of 2018 until they hit the recent bottom on Christmas Eve. There was a modest increase alongside a lot of volatility in the last […]
Bob’s Journal 1/31/2019
Most investors are focused on U.S. markets, but this is a good time to take a look at emerging markets. While U.S. markets were outpacing the world from the second half of 2016 through the first three quarters of 2018, emerging markets lumbered through another bear market during much of that time. We sold our […]
Bob’s Journal for 1/24/19
Is all the bad news reflected in the markets, or are the markets still too optimistic? It is early in earnings season, and we’ve received a mixed message so far. Last Tuesday, the stock indexes had nice rebounds following positive earnings reports from IBM, Procter & Gamble and United Technologies. The gains, however, were mostly […]
Bob’s Journal Update for 1/17
We’ll soon know if the recent rally in the markets will continue, because fourth-quarter earnings reports are being rolled out. Most markets had a dismal fourth quarter of 2018. But markets turned a corner after Christmas and the subsequent rallies are impressive. While the S&P 500 still is down 4.28% for the last three months, […]
Bob’s Journal 12/20/2018
Last week’s Employment Situation reports were extremely strong, but don’t use them as good indicators of the strength of the economy or its trend. The nonfarm payrolls report showed that 312,000 new jobs were created, and revisions added a total of 58,000 jobs for the previous two months. The number of new jobs was well […]
Bob’s Journal for 1/3/2019
While Treasury bonds outperformed stocks in 2018, what happened within the bond markets was more important to investors. Stocks outperform bonds over the long term, but bonds have better years from time to time. Treasury bonds have outperformed the major stock indexes for only a few calendar years since the end of the financial crisis. […]
