Bob's Journal
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Negative Surprises in the Economic Data
Markets are more volatile after a placid summer, and the economic data are a major cause. The recent economic data has been full of negative surprises, reports that are not as good as investors expected. Early in the summer it appeared that manufacturing had found its low point and might even start recovering. But most […]
When Diversification Doesn’t Work
September 15, 2016 When Diversification Doesn’t Work There are times when diversification doesn’t provide the protection investors want. We saw an example in the last week. All, or almost all, assets other than cash decline when real interest rates are rising faster than expected returns on other assets. This situation usually occurs when central […]
The Economy Slows a Notch
Just when most analysts were sure the pieces were in place for an interest rate increase in September (December at the latest), the monthly employment reports changed everything last Friday. The positive news is that the previous month’s large number of new jobs was revised higher, from 255,000 to 275,000. But there were several […]
The Fed Keeps Markets Jumping
The Federal Reserve’s annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last week kept investor’s guessing. Stocks drifted lower during the week as early indications were that Fed Chairman Janet Yellin would promise higher interest rates soon. Stock prices recovered after her speech, apparently because she didn’t mention a higher probability of a rate increase at […]
Reporting from San Francisco
This week’s report will be brief because I’m at the MoneyShow San Francisco this week giving presentations, signing books and appearing on a local radio show. The markets aren’t doing much, because the Fed is having its big annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week. Investors are waiting to see if any news comes […]
How Will the Election Affect Your Investments?
Next week I’m going to be traveling to the MoneyShow San Francisco, so I probably won’t send an email report or post a Bob’s Journal. Now that all the political parties have selected their nominees for president and vice president, we’re starting to see financial publications and websites speculating about what will happen to the […]
Are Central Banks Losing Effectiveness?
Most analysts focus on which actions central banks will take next. Will they change interest rates or stand pat? It is an interesting question, but there’s a more important long-term question. Investors should be asking if central bankers are losing their omnipotence. Are the central banks, as the saying goes, “pushing on a string?” Until […]
Markets Recovering from the Winter Gloom
Do you remember the markets of last January and February? How many of you thought at the time that at the end of July almost all markets would have very solid positive returns for the year? That’s what the markets delivered. The S&P 500 as of the end of July had returned 3.65% for the […]
