Bob's Journal
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Handling the Post-Election Realignment
The last few weeks are evidence that market forecasters don’t know much. They said before the election that a Clinton victory would be good for stocks and a Trump victory would be bad for stocks. Some observers were forecasting sharp drops of 10% to 15% if Trump were to win. Traders initially followed this view. […]
The Election and Your Portfolio
The election everyone said they hated is behind us. Now we plan for the results. Post-election forecasts are as precarious as pre-election forecasts. I remember after Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, the consensus was that stocks of “green companies” would do well and defense stocks would do poorly. There even were newsletters and mutual […]
Investments Tumble in October
I don’t know if the presidential election is affecting the stock market, but some analysts believe that’s the case. They also believe the stock market anticipates the election results. Their conclusion is that when the stock market rallies into election day, the incumbent party will win the election. When the market declines leading up to […]
Central Bankers Pushing on a String
October 27, 2016 Central Bankers Pushing on a String Investors are becoming complacent just at the time when they shouldn’t. As bankers ramped up quantitative easing (QE) after 2008, many investors remained cautious. Surveys showed investors holding large allocations to cash as QE pushed the prices of stocks, bonds, and other assets higher. Now, it […]
The Stealth Interest Rate Increase
I’m going to be busy at the MoneyShow Dallas this week, so I prepared this week’s update a day early, on Wednesday morning. Next week we’ll be on the regular schedule. People are focusing too much on the Federal Reserve and when it might raise interest rates. That’s caused them to miss the rate increases […]
Europe Could Return to the Headlines Soon
October 13, 2016 Europe Could Return to the Headlines Soon With the exception of the Brexit vote, investors haven’t worried much about Europe for a couple of years. After the European financial crisis didn’t bring the world economy to its knees, Europe stabilized and then improved a bit. Quantitative easing from the European Central Bank […]
The Third Quarter Surprises Analysts — Again
The third quarter was another one full of surprises for those trying to anticipate the markets. Let’s take a look at what the major asset classes did during the quarter. Despite a lot of negative headlines and pessimistic analysts, stocks had another good quarter across the globe. The S&P 500 rose 3.78% for the quarter, […]
An Update on the Effects of Brexit
Do you remember Brexit? That was when a majority of those casting votes in the United Kingdom were in favor of leaving the European Union. The initial forecasts were that the vote would be both a short-term and a long-term disaster for the United Kingdom and Europe. Global markets for risk assets (stocks, commodities, real […]
